Abstract

We imagine the effect of Venezuelan exodus to the Colombian work field. The commercial and you can public drama from inside the Venezuela caused one of the most critical migratory exoduses during the present decades: over 4 billion Venezuelans left their nation and near to 1.8 mil arrived in Colombia. I reveal that a rise in 1 p.p regarding labor likewise have due the latest migratory flow triggered a drop inside the hourly wages during the Colombia from 0.4% and you can a bad effectation of 0.1 p.p. to the a position price out of reduced-competent specialists. This new lose within the wages Little Rock AR escort service are better for men, low-skilled and relaxed specialists.

Introduction

The Venezuelan migratory exodus is one of the most crucial symptoms away from pressed migration around the world: on cuatro.5 billion regarding Venezuelans remaining the nation and you can went someplace else Footnote 1 (UNHCR 2019). Widely known destination for departing Venezuelan migrants are Colombia. According to authoritative analytics, there are almost 1.8 billion away from Venezuelans living in Colombia for the 2019, because of new Venezuelan economic and you can political crisis, and that is short for a rise in the newest share out of Venezuelans residing in Colombia prior to the fresh new federal inhabitants off 0.07% when you look at the 2015 to three.6% up to from inside the 2019.

It high bout of migration stands for problems so you can policymakers which attempt to see and you will quantify the possibility economic and societal outcomes of these a big inflow regarding immigrants, specifically for host regions like Colombia.

In this paper, I mine the newest Venezuelan exodus so you can comprehend the migratory episode’s effect on the Colombian labor market. I use a variations-in-differences methods and you can carry out my personal investigation of the as a result of the level of visibility round the Colombian departments to this exogenous work have wonder, both before and after 2016 (i.elizabeth. 2013-2019). In 2016 a significant and you can unforeseen migratory increase of Venezuelans in order to Colombia happened in the event that limits between the two regions have been reopened after nearly annually of closing.

My rates suggest that this new intensification of one’s migratory flow from Venezuelans beginning in mid-2016 made a serious drop inside aggregate earnings and in brand new a career rate from lower-skilled workers in the Colombia. An increase in 1 fee part (p.p.) of your labor force as a result of the inflow regarding Venezuelans produced a great 0.4% reduced total of earnings and you may an effective 0.1 p.p. reduction of employment to possess lower-skilled pros; that it impact on a job portray a fall of 0.18% relative to the average employment rate off low-competent Colombian specialists into the 2015, up until the Venezuelan exodus. As i guess these types of consequences to possess Colombian divisions on the border having Venezuela (La Guajira and you can Norte de Santander), performance illustrate your declines in wages and you can a career for everybody specialists were approximately ten% and you may step 3.cuatro p.p. (a great average a position), respectively, following the edging was re also-established.

So you’re able to guess the end result of migration within these two border departments, We construct a running class using around three departments out of Colombia that were not highly influenced by immigration and presented, typically, similar trend when it comes to labor business details together with equivalent socio-group attributes before the border re also-starting. To add robustness these types of performance, We use a vinyl Handle Means and you may estimate a similar distinctions-in-differences estimations given different combinations from divisions from Colombia due to the fact manage groups.

I also guess heterogeneous consequences from the gender, amount of qualification, work formality and given if the individuals were natives or perhaps not. I have found one, within the aggregate, brand new damage from inside the wages is large for men compared to ladies and far more powerful for lowest-skilled pros. Furthermore, brand new reduction in wages are higher to own informal workers but indeed there aren’t essential differences between locals and you will low-natives; the only real exception would be the fact I’ve found a statistically high raise regarding informality rate one of low-natives inside Colombia.